Real GDP growth surprised on the upside in 2025, but weaker nominal growth, trade uncertainty, and soft demand signal a bumpier road ahead.
The proposed reforms in goods and services tax (GST) announced by the government last week, coupled with the eighth pay commission dole-out, is likely to push consumption-driven stocks - such as air conditioners (ACs), select automobiles, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and counters of quick-service restaurants (QSRs) - into higher orbit over the next few months, believe analysts.
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets' movement would highly depend on macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, RBI's interest rate decision and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. India's industrial production data for October 2025 will be released on December 1, an official statement said on Friday.
The Indian economy recorded a six-quarter high growth of 8.2 per cent in July-September, as factories churned out more products in anticipation of a consumption boost from the GST rate cut, according to government data.
Top Indian cement firms are expected to report a strong earnings growth for the second quarter of the financial year 2025-26 (Q2FY26) on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, amid improved realisations, prices, and steady volume growth, but on a low base.
Among Sensex firms, Trent, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, UltraTech Cement, Asian Paints, Eternal and ITC were the major laggards. Selling in HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank also dragged the key indices. However, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and State Bank of India were among the gainers.
India's top cement producers delivered a solid July-September quarter (Q2) in 2025-26 (FY26), lifted by firmer prices, higher sales volumes, and a favourable base. Seasonal weakness and maintenance outages did dent sequential performance, but the overall picture remained positive - and the road ahead looks steady.
'It was like rigorously preparing for a solid, good exam...' 'I don't know what marks I will get, but I felt the rigorous preparation of an exam.' 'You may sweat, but I feel rejuvenated.'
Mutual fund industry extended its bull run in 2025, adding a staggering Rs 14 lakh crore to its asset base and pushing total AUM to a record Rs 81 lakh crore by November, powered by surge in retail participation and record SIP inflows. Venkat Chalasani, chief executive officer of AMFI, told PTI that the industry's outlook remains positive, with steady SIP inflows continuing to offset foreign portfolio investor outflows and strengthening market resilience.
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharma, Trent, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India and Bajaj Finserv were the major laggards. However, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Maruti, Bharat Electronics, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Adani Ports and HCL Tech were among the gainers.
Homegrown FMCG player Emami Ltd on Monday reported a 29.7 per cent decline in consolidated profit after tax at Rs 148.35 crore in the second quarter ended September 30, 2025, impacted by temporary trade disruption in expectation of GST rate cut and excessive rains affecting certain product categories.
For LG Electronics India, the Rs 11,607 crore initial public offering (IPO) is not just a fundraising exercise. The company's senior executives describe it as a step towards becoming "future-ready", showcasing financial strength while preparing for the next phase of growth in a market they see as still underpenetrated.
Facing a deepening slowdown, the auto sector is pinning hopes on the GST Council meeting on September 20 for a rate cut from 28 per cent to 18 per cent. However, states including Bihar, West Bengal, Kerala, and Punjab are of the view that the slowdown in the auto sector is not because of the GST rate but structural issues in the economy.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation hitting an all-time low in October would encourage the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate in its upcoming December 3-5 meeting. However, the July-September GDP growth, expected to be above 7 per cent, may act as a deterrent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Financial Stability Report (FSR), cautioned that stress tests indicate two scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) may have to dip into their capital conservation buffers (CCBs), unless stakeholders infuse capital, under a scenario involving a gradual slowdown in domestic GDP growth and a moderate rise in inflation, with limited policy easing space available to the central bank.
From the Sensex firms, Adani Ports, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, State Bank of India and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the biggest gainers. However, ITC, Bajaj Finance, Titan and Tech Mahindra were the laggards.
Even as non-life insurers reported muted premium growth in October, standalone health insurers saw a robust 38 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) surge. This growth was driven by pent-up demand in the retail health insurance segment.
The government bond yield curve is likely to flatten in the financial year 2027 (FY27) as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to ease supply pressure in the ultra-long segment. In FY26 so far, reduced investments by insurance companies and pension funds pushed up yields on ultra-long tenor securities, steepening the curve.
LG Electronics India saw its net profit decline by 27.3 per cent due to margin pressures witnessed in the second quarter. Its net sales in the quarter marginally rose 0.9 per cent to Rs 6,170.4 crore in the July-September quarter.
The GST Council, in its meeting on Saturday, is likely to decide on reducing tax rates on life and health insurance premiums, while hiking it on high-end wrist watches, shoes and apparels, besides considering a separate 35 per cent tax slab for sin goods. The 55th meeting of the GST Council, chaired by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and comprising state counterparts, is likely to discuss rate rejig in about 148 items, besides, it will also deliberate on bringing Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF), a major component for airline industry's operation cost, in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) fold.
Automobile retail sales across the domestic market witnessed a 21 per cent year-on-year increase in the 42-day festive season led by record registrations of passenger vehicles and two-wheelers aided by GST rejig enabled drop in prices across segments, dealer' body FADA said on Friday.
Retail inflation slipped to 1.54 per cent in September from 2.07 per cent in the preceding month mainly due to subdued prices of food items, including vegetables and pulses, according to government data released on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation was 5.49 per cent in September 2024.
Recent developments - proposed changes to the goods and services tax (GST) rates and S&P Global Ratings' upgrade of India's long-term sovereign credit rating to BBB, with a stable outlook, - may not be enough to bring foreign investors back to Indian markets in a rush, feel analysts.
Stock market sentiment is likely to remain optimistic going ahead, though some consolidation cannot be ruled out after the recent sharp rally in the benchmarks, analysts said. According to experts, the Nifty and Sensex could indeed move towards new record highs before the end of the year, if global cues stay supportive, crude oil prices remain benign and there is continued domestic earnings momentum.
Pulse oximeters, hand sanitisers, temperature check equipment and ambulances too will attract lower 5 per cent tax.
The Indian banking sector could be due for a rise in profitability after several quarters of net interest margin (NIM) compression. The Q2FY26 results suggest NIMs have bottomed out.
India's manufacturing sector activity eased to a nine-month low in November, mainly owing to softer rise in sales and production amid reports of challenging market conditions, a monthly report said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) falling to 56.6 in November from 59.2 in October, highlighted the slowest improvement in operating conditions since February.
Amazon India is repositioning itself as a comprehensive business partner rather than just an e-commerce platform, slashing seller fees and introducing artificial intelligence-powered tools ahead of the country's crucial festive shopping season that could determine the year's retail performance.
'The frenzy for gold is primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding the tariff war.'
After a year of modest returns, equity investors may anticipate gains of 10-15 per cent in Samvat 2082, which began on October 21. Although valuations have moderated from their peaks a year earlier, they remain above long-term averages, potentially limiting sharp upsides.
'We currently have new proposals worth Rs 1.48 trillion in the pipeline.'
Response to Rahul yatras in Gujarat forced GST cuts, says Congress. It reflects Modi's willingness to listen, says BJP.
Bajaj Finance's shares fell more than 7 per cent on Tuesday after it trimmed growth guidance for FY26, from 24-25 per cent projected earlier to 22-23 per cent.
Passenger vehicle retail sales shot up 35 per cent year-on-year during the nine-day Navratri period this year, helping the overall registrations last month grow 6 per cent, as offtakes remained muted in the first 21 days of the month and only took off after the roll-out of new GST rates on September 22, dealer' body FADA said on Tuesday.
Despite a strong 7.8 per cent growth in the first quarter, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year as the impact of US tariffs on Indian exports will reduce prospects, particularly in the second half, ADB said on Tuesday.
'Repeated adjournments are one of the largest contributors to lengthy litigation cycles.'
Domestic PMI data, US Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the progress on India-US trade deal negotiations are likely to influence movement in the equity market in the week ahead, according to analysts. Moreover, the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the equity market trends.
GST rates on under-construction houses maybe reduced from 12 pc with input tax credit to 5 pc without ITC. Similarly, the rate for under-construction affordable houses could come down to 3 per cent without input tax credit, from the current 8 per cent.
With the Union Budget three months away, major industry chambers have submitted to the government proposals on common taxes, seeking simpler compliance and a quicker resolution of tax disputes.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said the country needs big and world-class banks, and discussions are on with the Reserve Bank and lenders in this regard.
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